Welcome to this week’s roundup of U.S. and global cotton industry news for March 14–20, 2026. Domestic spot prices jumped sharply, futures briefly hit near one-year highs before easing, and export momentum held steady despite softer weekly sales. U.S. planting intentions point to another acreage contraction amid tight margins. Globally, the latest USDA outlook shows rising production and stocks, while India solidified its lead over China in U.S. cotton-product imports.
U.S. Spot Market and Quotations Surge
Spot quotations for base-quality upland cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 & 43-49, strength 27.0-28.9, uniformity 81.0-81.9) averaged 64.59 cents per pound in the seven designated markets for the week ending March 19 — up 291 points from 61.68 cents the prior week and higher than the year-ago 62.97 cents.
Daily averages ranged from a low of 62.64 cents (March 13) to a season high of 65.52 cents (March 17). Spot transactions totaled 50,808 bales, nearly doubling the previous week’s 25,925 bales and well above last year’s 23,387. Season-to-date spot sales now stand at 1,327,910 bales (vs. 814,573 a year ago).
Bale classing activity: 10,537 upland bales classed nationally this week. Quality highlights — staple averaged 37.21, mike 3.88, strength 30.75, uniformity 81.22. American Pima classing remains solid season-long.
Full USDA Weekly Cotton Market Review (PDF): View here NCC Weekly Market Report (PDF): View here
Futures Rally Then Moderate
ICE May futures settled the week at 67.67 cents, up from 65.14 cents the prior week. Contracts briefly crossed 69 cents mid-week — the highest level since April 2025 — on short covering, a softer U.S. dollar, and rising crude oil. By March 20, nearby futures eased to approximately 67.34 cents. December 2026 contracts held in the upper 60s.
Market observers note the rally lifted sentiment, yet most U.S. growers remain below break-even. Analysts estimate full costs (including basis) at 78–83 cents per pound; even mid-70s futures translate to roughly a 73-cent farm-gate price after expenses.
AgWeb analysis on rally and profitability: Read full story
Export Sales and Commitments
For the week ended March 12 (reported during this period), upland net sales totaled 196,700 running bales for the 2025/26 marketing year — down 22% week-over-week and 30% from the four-week average. Key buyers: Vietnam (75,700 RB), Turkey (27,800 RB), India (12,700 RB), Costa Rica, and Indonesia. Offsets came from reductions in South Korea, Pakistan, and Nicaragua.
Exports shipped 273,900 RB (down 26% from prior week but up 8% from four-week average) primarily to Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, China, and Mexico.
Pima net sales: 7,800 RB (up 9% week-over-week). Exports: 5,200 RB.
Total outstanding upland sales and forward commitments remain robust, with 2025/26 U.S. export projection at 12.0 million bales (largest in three years). U.S. global trade share holds near 27%.
Full FAS Export Sales Report: View here
U.S. Planting Intentions and Outlook
The National Cotton Council’s 2026 Planting Intentions Survey shows U.S. producers plan 9.0 million acres — a 3.2% decline from 2025. The Mid-South faces the steepest drop at nearly 21%, driven by persistent margin pressure and competition from other crops.
Certificated stocks stood at 115,640 bales (as of March 19), with delivery-point inventories stable. Forward contracting data and loan deficiency payments remain at zero in recent weeks.
Global & International Snapshot (25% of update)
USDA’s March 2026 Cotton: World Markets and Trade report lifts 2025/26 global production to 121.0 million bales (+1.1 million from February), led by larger crops in Brazil (+750,000 bales) and China (+500,000 bales). World mill-use dips slightly to 118.6 million bales, pushing ending stocks to 76.4 million bales. Global trade forecast: 43.9 million bales.
U.S. cotton-product imports (apparel/home textiles) held flat at 3.3 million metric tons in calendar 2025. India displaced China as the top supplier, shipping ~0.6 million tonnes vs. China’s 0.5 million tonnes — the first time in recent memory. Factors include UFLPA enforcement, tariffs, and India’s integrated supply chain advantages. Other gainers: Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico, and Cambodia.
China’s domestic CC Index 3128B rose modestly (104 to 109 cents/lb equivalent). Indian and Pakistani prices held steady. Competition from man-made fibers continues to cap cotton’s global consumption share.
Full USDA World Markets & Trade Circular (PDF): Download here COTTON USA Global Economic Update – March 2026 (PDF): Download here
Quick Links for Easy Copy-Paste
- USDA Weekly Cotton Market Review (March 20 issue)
- NCC Weekly Market Report
- FAS Export Sales Data
- AgWeb: Acreage & Profitability Outlook
- Trading Economics Cotton Prices & Charts
Bottom line: U.S. prices found support from tighter near-term supply and export shipments, but global stocks are building and margins remain challenging for 2026 planting decisions. Watch next week’s USDA reports and weather across the Belt for fresh direction.
Stay tuned for next Saturday’s update.
